Argentina’s Markets React to Shock Election Result
Argentina’s financial markets are grappling with the aftermath of a surprising primary election victory for far-right libertarian candidate Javier Milei. This unexpected win has shaken up the race leading to the general elections in October.
Milei, an economist known for his rock-singing and wild hair, exceeded expectations by securing around 30% of the vote with over 90% of the ballots counted, making it the largest vote share.
The primary election, which determines party candidates, serves as a dress rehearsal for the upcoming general election in two months.
The market had anticipated a strong performance from more moderate candidates, but they had a disappointing night. This could potentially weaken the peso currency in the parallel markets and put pressure on bonds, which have seen recent gains.
“The market did not anticipate these numbers from Milei. I believe the government will need to closely monitor the exchange market as this week is likely to be filled with tension,” said Dante Sica, a consultant and former production minister.
Argentina’s markets have been unstable due to years of economic crisis.
In 2019, a similar shock result during the primary elections led to a crash in bonds and the currency, which still remain in distressed territory. The government’s capital controls, which it has been unable to undo, currently keep the peso in check.
Milei’s victory introduces an additional unknown factor that could undermine market confidence. However, this may be tempered by the fact that he still faces a tough battle in October and a probable November run-off, which will test his ability to gain more voters’ support.
Goldman Sachs noted prior to the election that Milei supports more “radical policy proposals,” including dollarization and significant spending cuts. This has introduced uncertainty given his lack of an established political machine.
In October, Milei will compete in a three-way race against former security minister Patricia Bullrich, who secured the main conservative Together for Change nomination, and Peronist coalition candidate Economy Minister Sergio Massa.
A candidate needs to secure 45% of the vote on October 22nd to win outright, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the second-place candidate. If there is no outright winner, which seems likely, a head-to-head vote between the top two candidates will take place in November.
“What we are now left with is a much more uncertain scenario than what we initially expected,” said Ricardo Delgado, director of the Argentine economics consultancy Analytica.


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