An Expert’s Opinion

Gennady Negmetov, senior researcher at the Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies, confirmed that no country in the world has the technology to predict earthquakes a few days before they occur.

No Technology for Short-Term Predictions

In an interview with the Russian News agency, the expert notes that there is no technology that can predict an earthquake in a few days, although there are more than 600 earthquake warning stations.

He says: “No country in the world has the technology to predict the time, strength and coordinates of earthquakes,” noting that work in this direction continues without interruption.

Predictions for Medium and Long Term

According to him, the probability of earthquakes can now be predicted with a high degree of accuracy for the medium term (several months) or for the long term (a year or more), but only in known seismic zones on Earth.

He notes that several cases of short-term forecast of strong earthquakes are known. For example, one of them occurred at over 7 degrees in 1975 in northeast China, when a short-term forecast was issued and accordingly residents were asked to leave their homes and camp in tents, which helped, according to estimates, the number of victims will be reduced to five.

He says: “Currently, there are more than 600 short-term warning stations, but not all of them warn of the imminence of a catastrophe. Therefore, it is impossible to rely and believe that some stations warn of the possibility of an imminent earthquake. .”

Comprehensive Monitoring for Assessment

To assess seismic activity in the area, the expert adds, it must be subject to comprehensive and continuous monitoring and evaluation of preliminary indicators according to criteria that allow determining the degree of danger. Of course, this is a costly and time-consuming process. But this can usually be achieved by using special computer software to analyze the recorded data.

Source: News